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Vector Advisory

The Real Cost of Playthrough

Ori Helmer, Vector Advisory

If you only ever learn to read one number in a casino bonus's terms, make it the playthrough. It decides more of the offer's value than every other condition combined, and it's the number the headline is designed to distract you from.

Quick definition. A playthrough (also called a wagering or rollover requirement) is a multiplier: you must place bets totaling that many times a base amount before bonus funds become withdrawable. The casino isn't asking you to lose that money. It's asking you to run it through games that keep a percentage of everything bet, which over thousands of dollars of bets adds up to a predictable cost. That cost is the real price of the bonus.

Every dollar figure below is a made-up example chosen to keep the arithmetic easy. I don't name platforms, because terms change constantly and the method is the point. Read the current terms of anything real.

This guide goes deep on one number. For the other four, see reading an offer in five numbers.

The formula

Expected cost of a playthrough = total required bets × the house edge of the games you use.

That's it. Two numbers multiplied. Everything else in this guide is that formula applied to a $500 bonus, played on slots with a 4% house edge, which is a middle-of-the-road figure for slots.

The table

Same $500 bonus, same 4% edge, different multipliers. "Bets required" is the multiplier times the bonus. "Expected cost" is bets required times 4%. "Bonus worth" is $500 minus the expected cost, and the last figure is that value per advertised dollar.

  • 1x: $500 in bets. Expected cost $20. Bonus worth about $480. 96 cents per dollar.
  • 3x: $1,500 in bets. Expected cost $60. Bonus worth about $440. 88 cents.
  • 5x: $2,500 in bets. Expected cost $100. Bonus worth about $400. 80 cents.
  • 10x: $5,000 in bets. Expected cost $200. Bonus worth about $300. 60 cents.
  • 15x: $7,500 in bets. Expected cost $300. Bonus worth about $200. 40 cents.
  • 20x: $10,000 in bets. Expected cost $400. Bonus worth about $100. 20 cents.
  • 25x: $12,500 in bets. Expected cost $500. Bonus worth about $0. Break-even.
  • 30x: $15,000 in bets. Expected cost $600. Bonus worth about negative $100. The offer costs more than it gives.
  • 40x: $20,000 in bets. Expected cost $800. Bonus worth about negative $300.

Look at the shape of that list. The value doesn't fade gently as the multiplier rises. It falls in a straight line and crosses zero, and every row past that point is an offer that is worth less than nothing in expectation while still carrying a $500 headline.

The break-even multiplier

There's a clean rule hiding in the table. A bonus reaches break-even when the multiplier times the house edge equals 1, so:

Break-even multiplier = 1 ÷ house edge

At a 4% edge, that's 25x. At a 2% edge, 50x. At a 6% edge, about 17x. Any multiplier above that line means the playthrough costs more than the bonus is worth, and the only question left is how much you're paying for the privilege. When I look at a new offer, this is the first calculation I run, and it takes about ten seconds.

Trap one: what the multiplier applies to

"15x" means nothing until you know 15x of what. On a 100% match, "15x the bonus" and "15x the deposit plus bonus" describe the same $500 offer but require $7,500 and $15,000 in bets respectively. The second version is identical in cost to a 30x bonus-only playthrough, which the table above shows is worth negative $100. Same headline, same multiplier printed in the ad, opposite value. This one line in the terms is the most common way a good-looking offer turns out to be a bad one.

Trap two: game weighting

Terms usually list which games count toward the playthrough and how much. Slots often count at 100%. Table games, which have far lower house edges, are frequently weighted at 10% or 20%, or excluded entirely, and the weighting produces a result most people find backwards.

Take the $500 bonus at 15x, so $7,500 must count toward the playthrough. Play a table game with a 0.5% house edge that counts at 10%, and you need $75,000 in actual bets for $7,500 of credit. Expected cost: $75,000 × 0.5% = $375. That's worse than the $300 it costs on 4% slots. The low-edge game became the expensive route, because the weighting multiplied the required volume faster than the lower edge reduced the cost. Always compute cost on actual bets required, not on the credited amount.

The clock

Every multiplier comes with a deadline and usually a maximum bet while bonus funds are active. Those two together set a floor on how many hours the playthrough takes. $7,500 in bets at a $5 maximum bet is 1,500 spins. $20,000 is 4,000. A playthrough you can't physically complete in the window is worth zero regardless of the math, and terms that pair a high multiplier with a short window are doing that on purpose.

What this doesn't tell you

Expected cost is an average across a large amount of play. Any single run of a playthrough can finish well above or well below it. Variance is real, it's why the working capital requirement on this site exists, and no formula removes it. The math tells you what an offer is worth in expectation. It doesn't tell you what will happen to you on any given weekend.

What it does do is turn the headline into a number you can actually evaluate. Multiply, subtract, compare to the face value. Most offers will surprise you in one direction or the other, and it's rarely the direction the headline suggests.

The broader version of that argument is our guide on advertised value versus cash value.